Eighty years of US data: the suicide rate rose in recessions and fell in expansions, at working ages
CDC economists, 1928 to 2007: "the overall suicide rate generally rose during recessions and fell during expansions." The effect was in ages 25 to 64, not in the young or the old.
Suggestive but preliminary. Not settled. how we score evidence
Caveat on this rating: An association across national time series; it cannot show that any individual death followed a job loss. The rise from 2000 to 2018 ran through the longest expansion on record, so the business cycle is one driver among several.
The highest suicide rate the United States has recorded is 1932. This is the study that tested whether that was a coincidence.
Significant findings
Luo and colleagues at the CDC (American Journal of Public Health, 2011) "examined the associations of overall and age-specific suicide rates with business cycles from 1928 to 2007 in the United States."
"Graphical analyses showed that the overall suicide rate generally rose during recessions and fell during expansions. Age-specific suicide rates responded differently to recessions and expansions." The statistical tests found that "the overall suicide rate and the suicide rates of the groups aged 25 to 34 years, 35 to 44 years, 45 to 54 years, and 55 to 64 years rose during contractions and fell during expansions. Suicide rates of the groups aged 15 to 24 years, 65 to 74 years, and 75 years and older did not exhibit this behavior."
Their conclusion: "Business cycles may affect suicide rates, although different age groups responded differently. Our findings suggest that public health responses are a necessary component of suicide prevention during recessions."
Worth asking
This is the most consistent long-run signal in the American series, and it is not a clinical one. If work and money move the rate at the ages when people carry mortgages and families, then a response made only of screening and prescriptions is aimed at part of the problem. It does not explain everything: the rate rose from 2000 to 2018 through a long expansion. If you are in crisis in the US, call or text 988.
Source
Impact of business cycles on US suicide rates, 1928-2007 — Luo F, Florence CS, Quispe-Agnoli M, Ouyang L, Crosby AE (2011)
Reputable peer-reviewed journal
Read the source: https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2010.300010
DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2010.300010
How this was scored
- Study design
- Cross-sectional study / survey
- Funding
- Funding not disclosed
- Published in
- Reputable peer-reviewed journal
- Sample size
- not recorded
- Preregistered
- not recorded
- Conflicts disclosed
- not recorded
- Independent of proponent
- not recorded
- Retracted
- No
Read the full scoring rubric, including what it can't tell you.
Published September 21, 2026.
Questions
How strong is the evidence behind this?
veisund rates this source "early signal". Suggestive but preliminary. Not settled. It scores 40 out of 100 on our published rubric. One caveat travels with that badge: An association across national time series; it cannot show that any individual death followed a job loss. The rise from 2000 to 2018 ran through the longest expansion on record, so the business cycle is one driver among several. The score is calculated from recorded facts about the source — study design, funding, publication venue, sample size, preregistration — not typed in by an editor.
What is the source for this?
Impact of business cycles on US suicide rates, 1928-2007 — Luo F, Florence CS, Quispe-Agnoli M, Ouyang L, Crosby AE (2011). Published in: Reputable peer-reviewed journal. DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2010.300010. The full source is linked on this page so you can read it yourself.
Who paid for this research, and does that matter?
Study design: Cross-sectional study / survey. Funding: Funding not disclosed. Independence from the proponent is not recorded. Industry sponsorship is one of the most reliably measured biases in medicine, which is why funding carries real weight in the score rather than sitting in a footnote.
Is this medical advice?
This is information to bring to your prescriber, not medical advice and not a reason to change anything on your own. Nothing here is an instruction to stop or reduce a medication. If you are in crisis, call or text 988.
This is information to bring to your prescriber, not medical advice and not a reason to change anything on your own. Nothing here is an instruction to stop or reduce a medication. If you are in crisis, call or text 988.