glossary

effect size

how big a difference a treatment actually makes, on a standard scale — the number that separates statistically significant from worth taking.

a trial can be positive while the improvement it measures is small. this is the number that says how much.

what it is

Standardized measures like Hedges' g or Cohen's d put treatment effects on one scale: roughly 0.2 small, 0.5 medium, 0.8 large. Psychiatric drug effects mostly live in the small-to-medium range.

why headlines mislead

The landmark network meta-analysis of 21 antidepressants found all of them beat placebo — with between-drug differences smaller than the rankings implied. An AI-chatbot meta-analysis found g=0.61 for depression in young people and a null result for anxiety. Same arithmetic, very different headlines. Statistical significance says an effect is probably real; effect size says whether it is worth the trade-offs.

somewhere to put it

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want the deeper story? read prescribed to fail

questions

what is a good effect size?

Context decides — but 'how big is the effect versus placebo, in numbers?' is the most clarifying question you can ask about any treatment claim.

all 21 antidepressants beat placebo — so they all work?

They all beat placebo in pooled trials; the gaps between them are smaller than the rankings look, and the average effect is modest. Both halves matter.

more from the glossary

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