CDC, 2003 to 2023: firearms are the leading method of suicide, and suicide did not follow the pandemic curve
"Firearms were the leading method for both suicide and homicide". Overdose and homicide deaths surged from 2019 to 2021. Suicide fell from 2018 to 2020, then resumed its rise.
We have not finished checking this source. No judgement either way. how we score evidence
Caveat on this rating: A descriptive brief of death certificate data; it makes no claim about causes or policy. Method of death is reliably recorded; intent (suicide versus undetermined or accidental, especially for overdoses) is less so.
Most talk about suicide prevention is about treatment. The death certificates say the method matters, and that suicide moves on a different clock from the other injury deaths.
Significant findings
Curtin (NCHS Data Brief, 2025) reports injury death rates from 2003 to 2023, age adjusted to the 2000 population. "After a period of stability from 2003 to 2013, the total injury death rate increased 21% from 2013 to 2019 and an additional 25% through 2021 before declining 4% through 2023. This pattern of an increase before 2019 and an even greater increase from 2019 to 2021 was seen for both unintentional injury and homicide deaths."
"Suicide, however, exhibited a different pattern, with increases from 2003 to 2018 and then a decline from 2018 to 2020 before resuming its increase."
On method: "Firearms were the leading method for both suicide and homicide, with rates generally increasing over the period. Since 2021, firearm-involved homicide rates declined, while firearm-involved suicide rates were stable."
Worth asking
Two things follow. The first year of the pandemic, which was widely expected to raise suicides, saw the rate fall while overdoses and homicides rose sharply; whatever drives suicide is not simply distress in the air. And the leading method is one where an attempt is usually fatal, so access to it decides how many attempts become deaths regardless of how many people are in treatment. A brief of death certificates cannot say which policy would change that. If you are in crisis in the US, call or text 988.
Source
Trends in Death Rates for Leading Methods of Injury: United States, 2003-2023 — Curtin SC (2025)
Read the source: https://doi.org/10.15620/cdc/174582
DOI: 10.15620/cdc/174582
How this was scored
- Study design
- not recorded
- Funding
- not recorded
- Published in
- not recorded
- Sample size
- not recorded
- Preregistered
- not recorded
- Conflicts disclosed
- not recorded
- Independent of proponent
- not recorded
- Retracted
- No
We have not finished checking this source, so there is no scoring to show yet. “We have not checked this yet” and “this is disputed” are different statements, so no scored band is shown rather than a low one.
Read the full scoring rubric, including what it can't tell you.
Published September 21, 2026.
Questions
How strong is the evidence behind this?
veisund rates this source "not yet assessed". We have not finished checking this source. No judgement either way. One caveat travels with that badge: A descriptive brief of death certificate data; it makes no claim about causes or policy. Method of death is reliably recorded; intent (suicide versus undetermined or accidental, especially for overdoses) is less so. The score is calculated from recorded facts about the source — study design, funding, publication venue, sample size, preregistration — not typed in by an editor.
What is the source for this?
Trends in Death Rates for Leading Methods of Injury: United States, 2003-2023 — Curtin SC (2025). DOI: 10.15620/cdc/174582. The full source is linked on this page so you can read it yourself.
Is this medical advice?
This is information to bring to your prescriber, not medical advice and not a reason to change anything on your own. Nothing here is an instruction to stop or reduce a medication. If you are in crisis, call or text 988.
This is information to bring to your prescriber, not medical advice and not a reason to change anything on your own. Nothing here is an instruction to stop or reduce a medication. If you are in crisis, call or text 988.